Using Factor Models To Construct Composite Indicators From Bcs Data

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Using Factor Models To Construct Composite Indicators From Bcs Data

Using Factor Models To Construct Composite Indicators From Bcs Data written by Christian Gayer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Business categories.

Recoge: 1.Introduction. - 2.Industrial Confidence Indicator versus the Business Climate Indicator for the euro area. - 3.Factor models: Theoretical background. - 4.Empirical results for the euro area. - 5.Empirical results for individual Member States. - 6.Overall conclusions and outlook.

The Austrian Business Cycle In The European Context

The Austrian Business Cycle In The European Context written by Marcus Scheiblecker and has been published by Peter Lang this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.

Dating business cycle turning points is still an important task for economic policy decisions. This study does this for the Austrian economy for the period between 1976 and 2005, using only quarterly national accounts data of Austria, Germany and the euro area. Three different filtering methods are applied: first-order differences, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and the Baxter-King filter. To all of them, two different methods of determining the business cycle are applied: the ad-hoc determination of the business cycle and a dynamic factor model, taking into account the common variations of Austria, the euro area and the German business cycle movements. The results of both methods are dated by the Bry-Boschan algorithm in order to locate peaks and troughs of the cycle. The results are interpreted and compared to already exiting studies on the euro area and the Austrian business cycle.

The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model

The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model written by Daniel Grenouilleau and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with European Union countries categories.

The paper introduces an approximate dynamic factor model based on the extraction of principal components from a very large number of leading indicators stacked at various lags. The model is designed to produce short-term forecasts that are computed with the EM algorithm implemented with the first few eigenvectors ordered by descending eigenvalues. A cross-sectional bootstrap experiment is used to shed light on the sensitivity of the factor model to factor selection and to sampling uncertainty. The empirical number of factors seems more appropriately set through an analysis of eigenvalues, bootstrapped eigenvalues or the BIC than with more sophisticated information criteria. Confidence intervals derived from bootstrapped forecasts show the extent to which the data composition can support the hypothesis of business cycle co-movements and the selected factors can account for those shocks. Pseudo real-time out-of-sample forecast experiments conducted with a dataset of about two thousand series covering the euro area business cycle show that the SLID factor model outperforms benchmark models (AR models, leading indicators equations) for one-, two- and three- quarters-ahead forecasts of GDP growth. The accuracy of coincident forecasts compared to final estimates is not significantly different from Eurostat Flash or first estimates and is slightly superior to that of CEPR Eurocoin.

Economic Papers

Economic Papers written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with European Economic Community countries categories.

Adjustment In Emu

Adjustment In Emu written by Sven Langedijk and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Euro categories.

Recoge: 1. Introduction. - 2. Stylised developments. - 3. Analysing the characteristics of adjustment in EMU. - 4. Country dynamics. - 5.A possible adjustment scenario for Spain and Germany. - Concluding Remarks. - Appendix: A two-country-Three-Sector DSGE model.

Fiscal Policy In An Estimated Open Economy Model For The Euro Area

Fiscal Policy In An Estimated Open Economy Model For The Euro Area written by Marco Ratto and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Fiscal policy categories.

Recoge: Introduction - 1. The Model - 2. Estimation - 3. Assessing the Role of Fiscal Policy - 4. Conclusion.

Corporate Tax Competition And Coordination In The European Union

Corporate Tax Competition And Coordination In The European Union written by Gaëtan Nicodème and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Corporate taxation categories.

This paper reviews the rationales and facts about corporate tax coordination in Europe. Although statutory tax rates have dramatically declined, revenues collected from corporate taxation are fairly stable and there is so far no evidence of a race-to-the-bottom. The ambiguous results from economic tax theory and the institutional setting have constrained strong EU policy action in the area of tax competition. Yet, there are welfare gains to be expected from tax coordination. Following its 2001 Communication, the European Commission is currently working with Member States on the definition of a common consolidated corporate tax base for European Companies.

Pension Systems Intergenerational Risk Sharing And Inflation

Pension Systems Intergenerational Risk Sharing And Inflation written by Roel M. W. J. Beetsma and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Old age pensions categories.

Recoge: 1. Introduction. - 2. The command economy. - 3. The decentralized economy. - 4. The loglinearized model. - 5. Laissez-faire: no pension system. - 6. The pension system. - 7. Optimal pension arrangements. - 8. Conclusions.

Global Trade Integration And Outsourcing

Global Trade Integration And Outsourcing written by Karel Havik and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Contracting out categories.

Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Growth of intermediate trade, global production structures and phenomenon of goods and services outsourcing - 3. An assessment of vulnerability of EU Industry in this emerging "Global Factory"--4. Summary and concluding remarks.

Study On The Feasibility Of A Tool To Measure The Macroeconomic Impact Of Structural Reforms

Study On The Feasibility Of A Tool To Measure The Macroeconomic Impact Of Structural Reforms written by Christian Dreger and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with European Union countries categories.

Recoge: 1. Introduction and objectives - 2. Typology of econometric methods - 3. Selected models to study the impact of reforms - 4. Core and satellite models - 5. Directions to model developing - 6. References.