Making Robust Decisions
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Making Robust Decisions
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Author : David G. Ullman
language : en
Publisher: Trafford on Demand Pub
Release Date : 2006
Making Robust Decisions written by David G. Ullman and has been published by Trafford on Demand Pub this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Business & Economics categories.
How do you approach difficult decisions? Decision making is an integral part of business and technology, as well as almost every other facet of life. Now there is a uniquely practical book that can help you tackle your next decision with confidence. In Making Robust Decisions: Decision Management for Business, Service, and Technical Teams, you will learn: why decision making can be so difficult; how to address the challenges that uncertain, conflicting, incomplete, or evolving information present; and how to achieve robust decisions despite the varied personalities and perspectives on your team. Combining more than ten years of study of decision support, cognitive psychology, product development, and business management with modern Artificial Intelligence concepts, Making Robust Decisions gives you the tools you need to produce optimal decisions—those that make good use of available information, achieve buy-in from all parties, and yield the best possible results. Packed with practical examples and case studies, Making Robust Decisions strikes a middle ground between self-help books that, while interesting in theory, may not help with real-world problems and highly technical analysis texts. It provides some methods you can implement right away and others that you and your organization can grow into. It is readable, useful, and readily applicable to a wide variety of decision-making problems. The methods introduced in Making Robust Decisions can help with such varied issues as selecting a concept, managing a portfolio, choosing a vendor, evaluating a proposal, selecting from architecture options, choosing a design, and determining whether to make or buy an item. They support military selection of the best course of action (COA), Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), and homeland security strategies. Making Robust Decisions includes chapters on making estimates, working with decision teams, framing problems, the influence of belief, and using AccordÔ decision-making software to support robust decisions. It includes decision-making templates and demonstrates how the methods described support Design for Six Sigma practitioners and provide help in un-sticking the OODA Loop. If you’re in the business of making difficult decisions while managing uncertainty, risk, and team conflict, then discover the new, effective techniques presented in Making Robust Decisions.
Making Good Decisions Without Predictions
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Making Good Decisions Without Predictions written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Agreeing On Robust Decisions
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Author : Nidhi Kalra
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Agreeing On Robust Decisions written by Nidhi Kalra and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes.
Robust Discrete Optimization And Its Applications
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Author : Panos Kouvelis
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Robust Discrete Optimization And Its Applications written by Panos Kouvelis and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Mathematics categories.
This book deals with decision making in environments of significant data un certainty, with particular emphasis on operations and production management applications. For such environments, we suggest the use of the robustness ap proach to decision making, which assumes inadequate knowledge of the decision maker about the random state of nature and develops a decision that hedges against the worst contingency that may arise. The main motivating factors for a decision maker to use the robustness approach are: • It does not ignore uncertainty and takes a proactive step in response to the fact that forecasted values of uncertain parameters will not occur in most environments; • It applies to decisions of unique, non-repetitive nature, which are common in many fast and dynamically changing environments; • It accounts for the risk averse nature of decision makers; and • It recognizes that even though decision environments are fraught with data uncertainties, decisions are evaluated ex post with the realized data. For all of the above reasons, robust decisions are dear to the heart of opera tional decision makers. This book takes a giant first step in presenting decision support tools and solution methods for generating robust decisions in a variety of interesting application environments. Robust Discrete Optimization is a comprehensive mathematical programming framework for robust decision making.
Robustness Analysis In Decision Aiding Optimization And Analytics
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Author : Michael Doumpos
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-07-12
Robustness Analysis In Decision Aiding Optimization And Analytics written by Michael Doumpos and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a broad coverage of the recent advances in robustness analysis in decision aiding, optimization, and analytics. It offers a comprehensive illustration of the challenges that robustness raises in different operations research and management science (OR/MS) contexts and the methodologies proposed from multiple perspectives. Aside from covering recent methodological developments, this volume also features applications of robust techniques in engineering and management, thus illustrating the robustness issues raised in real-world problems and their resolution within advances in OR/MS methodologies. Robustness analysis seeks to address issues by promoting solutions, which are acceptable under a wide set of hypotheses, assumptions and estimates. In OR/MS, robustness has been mostly viewed in the context of optimization under uncertainty. Several scholars, however, have emphasized the multiple facets of robustness analysis in a broader OR/MS perspective that goes beyond the traditional framework, seeking to cover the decision support nature of OR/MS methodologies as well. As new challenges emerge in a “big-data'” era, where the information volume, speed of flow, and complexity increase rapidly, and analytics play a fundamental role for strategic and operational decision-making at a global level, robustness issues such as the ones covered in this book become more relevant than ever for providing sound decision support through more powerful analytic tools.
Advancements In Numerical Analysis And Quantitative Decision Making
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Author : Derici, Serkan
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2026-01-14
Advancements In Numerical Analysis And Quantitative Decision Making written by Derici, Serkan and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2026-01-14 with Mathematics categories.
Advancements in numerical analysis transform quantitative decision-making, enabling organizations and researchers to tackle complex problems with precision and speed. Modern algorithms, improved computational power, and sophisticated modeling techniques allow decision-makers to simulate scenarios, optimize outcomes, and manage uncertainty more effectively. As these tools evolve, they enhance the accuracy and reliability of data-driven insights while expanding the possibilities for innovation across fields. Understanding these developments is crucial for leveraging quantitative methods to make smarter, more informed decisions. Advancements in Numerical Analysis and Quantitative Decision-Making explores how modern advancements in numerical analysis enhance the accuracy, efficiency, and complexity of quantitative decision-making processes. It examines the ways improved algorithms, computational methods, and data-driven models enable better problem-solving and more informed choices across diverse fields. This book covers topics such as statistical analysis, sustainable development, and data mining, and is a useful resource for mathematicians, engineers, academicians, researchers, and data scientists.
Uncertainty In Climate Change Research
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Author : Linda O. Mearns
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2025-07-14
Uncertainty In Climate Change Research written by Linda O. Mearns and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-07-14 with Science categories.
This edited volume with open access discusses all aspects of uncertainty in climate change research, with a unique emphasis on decision making under uncertainty and the assessment of various uncertainties in the landscape of decision making. By analyzing uncertainty through the lens of decision making, the book seeks to understand and assess the various uncertainties inherent in climate change research, including uncertainties in economic impacts, human health and vulnerability, fluctuations in the physical climate system, changes in infrastructure, and future climate projections. Very little published material exists on the uncertainties regarding vulnerability of different populations to climate change, and so the book characterizes the uncertainty in vulnerability to better formulate solutions to climate change problems in affected populations. The volume will be of interest to students, post-docs, early career scientists, and researchers interested in all aspects of climate change. After an introduction that addresses the issue of uncertainty in general as it pertains to climate change research, the book is divided into 5 main sections. Section 1 focuses on uncertainty in policy and decision making, and how climate-related policy choices impact risk management, impact mitigation, and adaptation. Section 2 discusses uncertainty in climate change impacts, including impacts in agriculture, water resources, transportation infrastructure, and human health and vulnerability. Section 3 analyzes physical climate uncertainties, such as Earth system projections, emissions concentrations, and sea-level rise projections. Section 4 details the methods for quantifying uncertainty from a statistical perspective. Section 5 concludes the volume with discussions on special topics and integrated themes on uncertainty, including ethics and uncertainty, communication, the economics of climate change, and integrated modeling for decision support.
Multicriteria Decision Aid And Artificial Intelligence
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Author : Michael Doumpos
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-02-01
Multicriteria Decision Aid And Artificial Intelligence written by Michael Doumpos and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Presents recent advances in both models and systems for intelligent decision making. Organisations often face complex decisions requiring the assessment of large amounts of data. In recent years Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied with considerable success to support decision making in a wide range of complex real-world problems. The integration of MCDA and AI provides new capabilities relating to the structuring of complex decision problems in static and distributed environments. These include the handling of massive data sets, the modelling of ill-structured information, the construction of advanced decision models, and the development of efficient computational optimization algorithms for problem solving. This book covers a rich set of topics, including intelligent decision support technologies, data mining models for decision making, evidential reasoning, evolutionary multiobjective optimization, fuzzy modelling, as well as applications in management and engineering. Multicriteria Decision Aid and Artificial Intelligence: Covers all of the recent advances in intelligent decision making. Includes a presentation of hybrid models and algorithms for preference modelling and optimisation problems. Provides illustrations of new intelligent technologies and architectures for decision making in static and distributed environments. Explores the general topics on preference modelling and learning, along with the coverage of the main techniques and methodologies and applications. Is written by experts in the field. This book provides an excellent reference tool for the increasing number of researchers and practitioners interested in the integration of MCDA and AI for the development of effective hybrid decision support methodologies and systems. Academics and post-graduate students in the fields of operational research, artificial intelligence and management science or decision analysis will also find this book beneficial.
Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation And Vulnerability
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Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2023-06-22
Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation And Vulnerability written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-22 with Science categories.
The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.