Decision Making Under Risk
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The Cognitive Basis For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Research Programs Controversies
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Author : Samuel Shye
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2025-03-13
The Cognitive Basis For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Research Programs Controversies written by Samuel Shye and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-13 with Science categories.
This issue aims to portray, justify, advance, contrast, and illustrate research programs in the domain of cognitive decision-making under risk and uncertainty, where such research programs are intended to promote theories, models, or conceptual frameworks for: • Prediction of empirical observations, • Descriptions of empirical results, likely or rationalized to lead to predictions (e.g., models with free parameters whose values are part of a hypothesis to be tested; or cross validation of descriptive-model results); • Generalizations of many specific empirical results; • Normative models alternative to Expected Utility Theory (EUT) • Replications of published results concerning any of the above. Any of the above may concern any aspect (statistic) of empirical data, including: • Individual or group behavior itself (e.g., prediction of people's actual choices); • differences or difference in rankings of Individual or group behavior • distribution of responses for the general purpose of promoting scientific understanding of individual or collective human behavior in the domain of decision-making under risk or uncertainty. In particular, this issue may shed light on the controversy between Behavioral Economics and Cognitive Economics. The first relates to Kahneman and Tversky's program of Heuristics and Biases and the normative model of formal rationality, whereas the second is connected to Simon, Gigerenzer, and Viale's program of simple adaptive heuristics and the normative model of ecological bounded rationality. Both of which aim to improve economics on a cognitive basis.
Primer On Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2017-06-30
Primer On Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-30 with categories.
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know�and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don�t know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. This primer tackles the question, "what is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. Readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks�risk management, assessment, and communication. Making a distinction between knowledge uncertainty and natural variability, the book also introduces a down-to-earth approach to decision making under uncertainty. Extensive examples illustrate the applicability of the risk analysis principles. The book�s simple and straightforward style�based on the author�s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator�strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles of risk analysis in a manner that enables readers to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis�the "how to." Additional exercises, as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation Decision
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-09-17
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Decision Making Under Risk In Organisations
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Author : Eckard Kamper
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-02-06
Decision Making Under Risk In Organisations written by Eckard Kamper and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This title was first published in 2000. By comparing how two local authorities deal with the risks involved in Germany's environmental waste policy, this text questions how organizations deal with making decisions in situations of risk in general. Using a combination of risk sociology and institutional theories of organization, Kamper examines how organizations develop institutional structures to cope with risk-taking decision-making. In doing so, he challenges the commonly-held view that the most important factor required when making risky decisions is rationality, and instead argues that the key is an ability to absorb uncertainty. The volume seeks to show how organizations develop institutional structures to cope with risk-taking which both absorbs uncertainty and allocates responsibility, and how an understanding of social structures is crucial to understanding how such decisions are made by organizations.
Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : J. Geweke
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by J. Geweke and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).
Principles Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles E. Yoe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Principles Of Risk Analysis written by Charles E. Yoe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Decision making categories.
"Preface I did not want to write this book. I wanted to buy it. Risk analysis is mature enough that it needs a principles text. There are many wonderful books available on the subject of risk. In fact, for years, in the training I have done, I used to schlep a dozen of them around for students to peruse. These I called the starter library. I urged people to buy them. Eventually I stopped carrying the books with me and started looking for that one book that would introduce students and professionals to the integrated topic of risk analysis. I never found it. So, I decided to go ahead and write it. Risk analysis is a very parochial subject matter and practice. There are many tribes of risk practitioners, and they speak many dialects. To be honest, I am not entirely sure the field is ready for anything one might call a principles text. We may never have enough agreement on the principles to so ordain them as a community of practice. Nonetheless, it has been my great fortune to have worked with a lot of people on many different applications of the risk analysis decision-making paradigm. This has included natural disasters, engineering, food safety, food defense, environmental issues, animals and plants, trade, quality management, business, finance, terrorism, defense applications, research, and other risk analysis applications. No matter how much the words and models changed from one application to the next, I found the basic principles were rather constant. Everyone was struggling to figure out how best to make good decisions when there are so many things we just don't know for sure. My major accomplishment in all of this was simply to learn the jargon of each field; then I stole liberally from the other fields, adapting ideas, methodologies, and models from one field"--Provided by publisher.
Experiments In Decision Making Under Risk
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Author : Michał Wiktor Krawczyk
language : en
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
Release Date : 2009
Experiments In Decision Making Under Risk written by Michał Wiktor Krawczyk and has been published by Rozenberg Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Principles Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2011-09-15
Principles Of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Managing Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Richard Friberg
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2015-11-27
Managing Risk And Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.
Decision Making Under Risk
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Author : Ale Smidts
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Decision Making Under Risk written by Ale Smidts and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Agriculture categories.
Cum laude graduation (with distinction).