Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Martha Whitesmith
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-21 with Political Science categories.
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-21 with Political Science categories.
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Patterns Of Error Perceptual And Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis And Decision Making written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Cognitive styles categories.
The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.
Strategies To Reduce Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Donald Raymond Kretz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Strategies To Reduce Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Donald Raymond Kretz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Cognition categories.
Reports and studies point to cognitive bias as a possible factor in certain intelligence failures, but also suggest that cumbersome, time consuming analytic methods lack acceptance by professional analysts. A reasonable compromise, then, might be achieved by introducing effective but minimally intrusive cognitive interventions (i.e., "mental speed bumps") that induce a high-quality, high-confidence judgment. Prior studies on cognitive disfluency show promise in this regard. The objective of this research was to begin to fill significant gaps in understanding the possibilities and limits of bias-reducing analytic techniques (BRATs) in reducing the effects of cognitive bias in analysis. In doing so, this study examined four specific techniques that varied in terms of their required cognitive and physical effort. The impact of those techniques on analytic quality and confidence was assessed, and possible relationships between individual cognitive tendencies and complex judgmental task performance were investigated. The results of this study were mixed. While statistical significance was lacking in many of the comparisons, one intervention was shown to consistently outperform others and demonstrated improvement over the control group. This intervention, the Check the Item technique, required the least amount of context switching of all the interventions, lending support to the hypothesis that minimally-invasive approaches will be more effective in improving analytic quality. Observations of confidence, however, may demonstrate the opposite effect - techniques designed to improve quality may, at the same time, exacerbate an overconfidence bias. Individual cognitive tendencies showed weak correlations to confidence, but not to analytic quality, suggesting that confidence may be tied to more stable personality characteristics while quality is tied to more task-dependent factors. The utility of the Analytic Decision Task, the introduction of measures of analytic quality and improvement, and the use of response inertia as a means of detecting confirmation bias should all prove to be useful in the future studies proposed. The findings reported here should motivate further research on this topic in order to better understand how analysts make judgments and identify effective techniques to help them avoid cognitive pitfalls.
Cognitive Biases In Visualizations
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Author : Geoffrey Ellis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-09-27
Cognitive Biases In Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-27 with Computers categories.
This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Source Wikipedia
language : en
Publisher: University-Press.org
Release Date : 2013-09
Intelligence Analysis written by Source Wikipedia and has been published by University-Press.org this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09 with categories.
Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. Pages: 110. Chapters: Cognitive bias, Counter-intelligence, Intelligence cycle management, Clandestine HUMINT operational techniques, Clandestine HUMINT asset recruiting, Clandestine HUMINT and covert action, Counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism organizations, Intelligence collection management, Intelligence analysis management, Clandestine cell system, Intelligence cycle security, Intellipedia, Words of Estimative Probability, Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis, A-Space, Traffic analysis, Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, OODA loop, Structured Geospatial Analytic Method, Counterintelligence failures, Global Intelligence Forum, Richards Heuer, National Intelligence Estimate, National Defense Intelligence College, Zendian Problem, Intelink, Analytic confidence, Open Source Information System, Pocket litter, Espionage organizations, Intelligence source and information reliability, Bureaupedia, E-Guardian, Defense Intelligence Analysis Center, National Operational Intelligence Watch Officer's Network.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Human information processing categories.
The Art And Science Of Business Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Benjamin Gilad
language : en
Publisher: JAI Press(NY)
Release Date : 1996
The Art And Science Of Business Intelligence Analysis written by Benjamin Gilad and has been published by JAI Press(NY) this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume covers such topics as business intelligence as a strategic control system, competitive assessment, and intelligence analysis and intelligence collection.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J Heuer
language : en
Publisher: Burtyrki Books
Release Date : 2020-03-05
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and has been published by Burtyrki Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-05 with History categories.
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
The Impact Of The Information Revolution On Policymakers Use Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Lorne Teitelbaum
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
The Impact Of The Information Revolution On Policymakers Use Of Intelligence Analysis written by Lorne Teitelbaum and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Information policy categories.
Compares how policymakers' use of intelligence to support the policymaking process has changed. The intelligence community's Intelink network, the Internet, and web-based sources of analysis have not become major contributors to the policymaking process. Policymakers still find intelligence analysis useful for supporting the policymaking process, especially when it is conveyed through a one-on-one intelligence briefing.